Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2200 at 12:29, 26%.

Safest bet today UA 2200 LGA 12:29 → DEN 14:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 2535 LGA 20:55 → DEN 23:06 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	26%	4%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:24	DEN 17:38	35%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 1729 United Flight history →	LGA 15:20	DEN 17:56	38%	10%	0.6%	63%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:20	DEN 16:41	39%	11%	0.6%	71%
WN 2455 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DEN 16:20	42%	7%	0.6%	51%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	45%	13%	0.6%	61%
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:04	46%	11%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
WN 2457 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 21:05	DEN 23:40	49%	20%	0.7%	36%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	50%	13%	0.7%	60%worse than usual
WN 2534 Southwest	LGA 16:40	DEN 18:50	55%	13%	0.5%	no record
WN 2456 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:50	DEN 19:30	55%	12%	0.6%	41%
WN 2535 Southwest	LGA 20:55	DEN 23:06	56%	19%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LGA 12:05 → STL 13:45WN 2473	56m St Louis	STL 14:41 → DEN 16:04WN 4093	5h 59m	80%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON