Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2057 at 21:29, 35%.

Safest bet today AA 2057 LGA 21:29 → ORD 23:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest UA 598 LGA 18:36 → ORD 20:10 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Weather 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 29 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	35%	15%	0.5%	55%
AA 2841 American	LGA 21:27	ORD 23:01	39%	14%	0.5%	no record
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	40%	11%	0.6%	61%
UA 775 United	LGA 21:24	ORD 22:57	42%	18%	0.5%	no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	45%	15%	0.5%	66%worse than usual
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	45%	14%	0.6%	64%
UA 1830 United Flight history →	LGA 21:25	ORD 22:58	45%	18%	0.6%	56%
AA 3318 American Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:35	46%	15%	0.6%	59%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	48%	15%	0.6%	59%
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	48%	15%	0.6%	53%
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	49%	16%	0.6%	47%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	52%	14%	0.6%	62%worse than usual
AA 752 American Flight history →	LGA 17:29	ORD 19:43	53%	19%	0.6%	54%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:12	53%	17%	0.7%	52%
UA 602 United Flight history →	LGA 17:25	ORD 19:12	56%	17%	0.6%	42%
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:31	ORD 21:03	58%	19%	0.5%	60%worse than usual
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 18:18	ORD 20:04	58%	16%	0.6%	38%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	58%	14%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
UA 1098 United Flight history →	LGA 18:25	ORD 20:12	62%	18%	0.7%	39%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:28	ORD 19:02	63%	18%	0.5%	no record
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:36	ORD 20:10	67%	18%	0.6%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON