Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 71%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4830 at 22:55, 67%.

Safest bet today WN 4830 MCO 22:55 → BNA 23:55 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time Riskiest WN 2687 MCO 20:52 → BNA 21:18 · 75% chance 15+ min late

Weather 71% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 16 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4830 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BNA 23:55	67%	30%	0.3%	49%worse than usual
WN 2688 Southwest	MCO 22:21	BNA 23:26	68%	30%	0.3%	no record
WN 611 Southwest	MCO 19:58	BNA 20:27	74%	30%	0.2%	no record
WN 2687 Southwest	MCO 20:52	BNA 21:18	75%	30%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON