tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:28 pm at Orlando); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:45, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 17% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 9h 59m 92% 69%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:34 → ORD 17:40AA 3031 3h 28m Chicago ORD 21:08 → SMF 23:34AA 1094 11h 00m 95% 67%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:30 → MDW 19:30WN 2657 2h 20m Chicago MDW 21:50 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4121 9h 50m 82% 55%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:45 → IAH 17:24UA 1360 2h 56m Houston IAH 20:20 → SMF 22:28UA 1148 9h 43m 89% 53%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:25 → LAX 19:42DL 382 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 8h 42m 77% 48%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:20 → PHX 18:55AA 2105 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 20:43 → SMF 23:01AA 2146 8h 41m 75% 46%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682 10h 13m 89% 43%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:30 → DEN 17:50WN 2632 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:00 → SMF 22:35WN 2050 10h 05m 88% 42%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 19m 23% 17%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:51 → ATL 17:11DL 1576 48m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 7h 02m 20% 9%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:55 → BNA 17:05WN 2606 46m Nashville BNA 17:51 → SMF 20:32WN 4397 7h 37m 17% 8%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON