tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at Miami); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1696 at 20:20, with a 44% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1696 Southwest MIA 20:20 HOU 22:00 44% 16% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MIA 15:15 → MDW 17:25WN 2930 3h 55m Chicago MDW 21:20 → HOU 00:06 +1WN 4058 9h 51m 98% 70%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:15 → DEN 18:35WN 2926 3h 20m Denver DEN 21:55 → HOU 01:24 +1WN 3433 10h 09m 94% 59%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:18 → DFW 14:39AA 3019 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 8h 30m 94% 55%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:10 → DFW 14:24AA 1287 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 88% 45%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 6h 51m 88% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 14:29 → DFW 16:51AA 2762 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 70% 40%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 5h 17m 60% 30%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 49% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON