Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 669 at 09:00, 16%.

Safest bet today DL 669 JFK 09:00 → SFO 12:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 59 JFK 18:55 → SFO 22:33 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	16%	4%	0.3%	74%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	18%	5%	0.4%	73%
AS 227 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:30	SFO 12:52	19%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	SFO 12:14	22%	8%	0.3%	50%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	25%	9%	0.3%	72%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	25%	4%	0.3%	60%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	SFO 14:31	26%	7%	0.6%	78%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	26%	7%	1.0%	64%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	26%	10%	0.4%	73%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	28%	10%	0.3%	68%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	31%	9%	0.4%	75%
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:14	SFO 19:31	33%	12%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	35%	12%	0.5%	68%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	SFO 19:28	35%	14%	0.6%	62%
DL 1732 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:15	SFO 00:53	37%	21%	0.8%	64%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	37%	16%	1.2%	66%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	37%	14%	0.6%	67%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	38%	15%	0.8%	62%
AS 32 Alaska	JFK 16:46	SFO 19:48	39%	15%	1.3%	no record
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	40%	9%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SFO 19:30	40%	13%	0.6%	67%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	41%	21%	1.2%	65%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	SFO 22:40	46%	16%	0.6%	62%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:02	SFO 22:07	46%	14%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
UA 1558 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	SFO 22:59	48%	19%	1.3%	52%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	50%	18%	1.0%	62%worse than usual
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	52%	16%	0.8%	68%worse than usual
AS 59 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 18:55	SFO 22:33	52%	18%	1.1%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 14:15 → CLE 16:01UA 3616 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Cleveland	CLE 17:40 → SFO 19:55UA 234	8h 40m	97%	71%
United Details →	EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 12:35 → SFO 15:08UA 1097	8h 48m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	8h 50m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON