Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3163 at 12:50, 31%.

Safest bet today AA 3163 ORD 12:50 → LGA 16:17 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest UA 2458 ORD 17:57 → LGA 21:08 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 24 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:50	LGA 16:17	31%	12%	0.7%	68%
AA 1478 American Flight history →	ORD 13:14	LGA 16:34	35%	11%	0.7%	63%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LGA 23:45	36%	11%	0.6%	52%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	37%	12%	0.6%	65%
AA 679 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	LGA 23:21	38%	11%	0.7%	63%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:10	LGA 23:44	40%	11%	0.5%	58%
AA 512 American	ORD 13:49	LGA 17:03	40%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 2239 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:28	LGA 17:50	42%	13%	0.6%	63%
AA 3050 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	LGA 18:19	42%	12%	0.8%	65%
UA 2827 United	ORD 20:09	LGA 23:28	42%	11%	0.5%	no record
AA 866 American	ORD 15:11	LGA 18:25	43%	13%	0.7%	no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	44%	14%	0.5%	64%
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:31	LGA 17:41	45%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	45%	12%	0.7%	65%worse than usual
UA 1655 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	LGA 23:15	47%	12%	0.7%	50%
UA 2133 United	ORD 15:23	LGA 18:43	48%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:11	LGA 21:24	50%	17%	0.6%	58%
AA 1724 American Flight history →	ORD 18:29	LGA 21:50	50%	16%	0.7%	49%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	ORD 16:30	LGA 19:53	50%	16%	0.8%	50%
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:49	LGA 20:03	52%	15%	0.7%	47%
UA 2605 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	LGA 21:54	55%	15%	0.6%	54%
UA 511 United	ORD 16:20	LGA 19:42	56%	15%	0.6%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:40	LGA 20:50	58%	15%	0.5%	57%worse than usual
UA 456 United	ORD 17:20	LGA 20:42	58%	15%	0.6%	no record
DL 2336 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:35	LGA 21:00	58%	16%	0.6%	51%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	ORD 17:00	LGA 20:22	58%	16%	0.7%	51%
UA 1623 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	LGA 21:25	60%	16%	0.7%	41%
UA 2458 United Flight history →	ORD 17:57	LGA 21:08	62%	16%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON