Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: UA 617 at 20:21, 29%.

Safest bet today UA 617 ORD 20:21 → MCO 00:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 9417 ORD 13:27 → MCO 16:39 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 617 United	ORD 20:21	MCO 00:09	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1811 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	MCO 16:43	33%	9%	0.5%	78%worse than usual
UA 2620 United	ORD 12:51	MCO 16:34	36%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	MCO 22:54	38%	11%	0.9%	53%
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:58	MCO 19:46	39%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 609 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	MCO 17:57	40%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:24	MCO 18:07	42%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:12	MCO 21:55	44%	16%	0.6%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	46%	24%	1.3%	73%worse than usual
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 16:14	MCO 20:10	46%	15%	0.7%	62%
AA 2064 American Flight history →	ORD 16:13	MCO 20:08	47%	15%	0.7%	55%
F9 9417 Frontier	ORD 13:27	MCO 16:39	50%	19%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON