Today: WN 1923 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–67%.

Safest bet today WN 1923 MCO 10:46 → MIA 11:55 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1923 Southwest	MCO 10:46	MIA 11:55	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	15%	6%	0.4%	88%
AA 548 American	MCO 09:12	MIA 09:58	16%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 2717 Southwest	MCO 10:46	FLL 11:58	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 366 American	MCO 11:12	MIA 12:24	21%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MCO 11:02	MIA 12:14	22%	8%	0.4%	83%
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	35%	8%	0.5%	80%worse than usual
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:51	MIA 17:03	47%	19%	0.6%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	MCO 22:56	MIA 00:06	48%	21%	1.3%	no record
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MCO 15:39	MIA 16:50	48%	23%	0.6%	52%
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MCO 19:40	MIA 20:57	49%	23%	1.4%	40%
WN 1459 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	FLL 22:10	52%	19%	1.3%	63%worse than usual
WN 3049 Southwest	MCO 22:26	FLL 23:38	54%	17%	1.2%	no record
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 20:24	MIA 21:36	55%	19%	1.3%	66%worse than usual
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MCO 18:34	MIA 19:50	55%	22%	1.4%	29%
WN 1483 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:55	MIA 22:15	56%	18%	1.3%	43%
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:25	MIA 20:37	56%	20%	1.4%	no record
WN 2678 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:55	PBI 22:15	64%	33%	2.1%	63%worse than usual
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	67%	27%	0.8%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON