Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at South Florida); 33 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Today: WN 1913 at 21:11 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–52%.

Safest bet today WN 1913 FLL 21:11 → BWI 23:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2960 FLL 17:00 → IAD 19:38 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 33 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1913 Southwest	FLL 21:11	BWI 23:55	28%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 768 Southwest	PBI 14:40	BWI 17:05	28%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2281 American Flight history →	PBI 15:05	DCA 17:38	28%	13%	2.2%	58%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	29%	9%	0.6%	76%
WN 1410 Southwest	PBI 18:55	BWI 21:25	29%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 1854 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 21:20	BWI 23:55	30%	10%	0.2%	57%
WN 411 Southwest	FLL 14:25	BWI 16:55	30%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3360 Southwest	FLL 19:24	BWI 22:09	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 1697 Southwest	FLL 19:05	BWI 21:40	35%	11%	0.2%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	35%	11%	0.5%	74%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	35%	14%	0.6%	57%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:52	DCA 16:32	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:27	DCA 18:08	36%	9%	0.6%	58%
B6 24 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:32	DCA 16:59	37%	17%	1.7%	58%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	MIA 13:42	DCA 16:26	38%	8%	0.6%	70%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DCA 18:13	38%	12%	0.7%	62%
WN 2693 Southwest	MIA 14:40	BWI 17:15	39%	12%	0.5%	no record
AA 1634 American Flight history →	MIA 15:44	BWI 18:26	39%	18%	0.5%	66%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	40%	20%	0.4%	61%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	40%	12%	0.5%	63%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	42%	19%	0.4%	57%
AA 2104 American	MIA 16:08	BWI 18:49	43%	19%	0.5%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	MIA 17:39	BWI 20:27	44%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 3977 Southwest	MIA 18:55	BWI 21:35	45%	14%	0.5%	no record
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	46%	14%	0.6%	51%
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:55	BWI 21:23	49%	30%	0.6%	35%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	52%	24%	0.6%	36%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	52%	22%	0.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON