Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 pm at San Francisco)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 27% chance of reaching Dallas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 1859 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:10	DAL 20:45	46%	7%	0.2%	17%
WN 4313 Southwest	SFO 16:01	DAL 21:37	56%	10%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SFO 12:40 → PHX 14:45WN 4237	3h 51m Phoenix	PHX 18:36 → DAL 23:06WN 3365	8h 26m	100%	53%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:25 → DEN 18:00WN 3641	2h 25m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	7h 05m	91%	47%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:10 → LAX 15:40WN 278	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 17:56 → DAL 23:02WN 2325	6h 52m	94%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:40 → PHX 14:45WN 4237	49m Phoenix	PHX 15:34 → DAL 20:00WN 3376	5h 20m	53%	27%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:25 → DEN 18:00WN 3641	1h 10m Denver	DEN 19:10 → DAL 22:09WN 1578	5h 44m	44%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON