Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:35 am at San Francisco); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3782 Southwest	SFO 23:41	MDW 05:47	35%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3649 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 23:40	MDW 05:55	37%	5%	0.6%	41%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SFO 17:05 → SAN 18:50WN 4681	3h 51m San Diego	SAN 22:41 → MDW 04:40 +1WN 1565	9h 35m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	SFO 19:10 → LAX 20:40WN 3645	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 23:55 → MDW 05:55 +1WN 2413	8h 45m	98%	65%
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:40 → PHX 14:45WN 4237	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 16:40 → MDW 22:00WN 4169	7h 20m	92%	60%
Delta Details →	SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	8h 37m	93%	58%
Southwest Details →	SFO 14:25 → DEN 18:00WN 3641	2h 23m Denver	DEN 20:23 → MDW 23:46WN 3047	7h 21m	92%	50%
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:25 → SAN 14:00WN 3525	1h 40m San Diego	SAN 15:40 → MDW 21:35WN 3448	7h 10m	86%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SFO 12:40 → PHX 14:45WN 4237	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 16:07 → MDW 21:31WN 297	6h 51m	73%	49%
Southwest Details →	SFO 15:10 → DAL 20:45WN 1859	1h 11m Dallas	DAL 21:56 → MDW 00:14 +1WN 161	7h 04m	64%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON