Today: WN 2765 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet today WN 2765 SMF 11:40 → BUR 12:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2890 SMF 20:40 → BUR 21:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2765 Southwest	SMF 11:40	BUR 12:55	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3902 Southwest	SMF 13:06	BUR 14:38	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3842 Southwest	SMF 14:31	BUR 16:03	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3904 Southwest	SMF 16:56	BUR 18:28	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1223 Southwest	SMF 18:59	BUR 20:31	22%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 2838 Southwest	SMF 16:25	BUR 17:40	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3906 Southwest	SMF 20:36	BUR 22:08	25%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3360 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:55	BUR 20:10	25%	8%	0.5%	76%
WN 2890 Southwest	SMF 20:40	BUR 21:55	31%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON