tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Sacramento)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 24%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 14:15, 50% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3799 Southwest Flight history → SMF 22:10 MCO 06:15 25% 6% 0.4% 72%
WN 3943 Southwest SMF 22:31 MCO 06:34 26% 6% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:55 → PHX 20:00WN 3231 3h 05m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 9h 25m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 00m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 +1UA 1730 9h 16m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 9h 05m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → SMF 18:55 → LAX 20:39DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Los Angeles LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547 8h 30m 90% 66%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:05 → LAS 19:35WN 3786 3h 16m Las Vegas LAS 22:51 → MCO 06:19 +1WN 3508 9h 14m 97% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 920 1h 45m St Louis STL 20:55 → MCO 00:25 +1WN 3950 7h 55m 95% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 16:43 → SAN 18:20AS 2406 · flown by Horizon 2h 46m San Diego SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707 9h 35m 98% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest 54m Los Angeles LAX 21:55 → MCO 05:56 +1AA 1118 7h 35m 67% 47%
DeltaDetails → SMF 19:41 → SEA 21:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 8h 59m 74% 32%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 920 58m St Louis STL 20:08 → MCO 23:31WN 4812 7h 01m 55% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON