Today: WN 3587 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–45%.

Safest bet today WN 3587 SNA 09:52 → OAK 11:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2694 SNA 17:00 → OAK 18:25 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3587 Southwest	SNA 09:52	OAK 11:25	16%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 3849 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:15	OAK 10:40	17%	3%	0.4%	91%
WN 2382 Southwest	SNA 10:20	OAK 11:45	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1227 Southwest	SNA 21:10	OAK 22:43	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3997 Southwest	SNA 12:27	OAK 14:00	31%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:50	OAK 22:20	31%	8%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 4986 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:50	OAK 14:20	35%	5%	0.4%	65%
WN 4113 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:51	OAK 16:25	38%	6%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
WN 3164 Southwest	SNA 19:24	OAK 20:57	39%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 15:40	OAK 17:05	40%	7%	0.4%	60%
WN 2897 Southwest	SNA 17:09	OAK 18:43	40%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 3853 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:35	OAK 20:00	42%	7%	0.4%	45%
WN 2694 Southwest	SNA 17:00	OAK 18:25	45%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON