Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3039 at 11:53, 40%.

Safest bet today OO 3039 SNA 11:53 → SFO 13:29 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2657 SNA 18:20 → SFO 19:51 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 3039 SkyWest	SNA 11:53	SFO 13:29	40%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 13:06	SFO 14:51	42%	14%	0.5%	50%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 17:50	SFO 19:26	43%	11%	0.6%	62%
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 20:25	SFO 22:03	44%	10%	0.8%	32%
OO 3493 SkyWest	SNA 20:34	SFO 22:10	44%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	45%	15%	0.6%	67%worse than usual
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:24	SFO 18:00	45%	15%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
AS 3269 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 14:46	SFO 16:20	47%	14%	0.5%	19%
OO 3055 SkyWest	SNA 13:50	SFO 15:26	47%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 1320 United	SNA 15:06	SFO 16:54	48%	13%	0.5%	no record
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	48%	13%	0.7%	65%worse than usual
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	48%	14%	0.7%	50%
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:22	SFO 20:10	49%	14%	0.5%	no record
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 17:54	SFO 19:34	49%	16%	1.1%	61%
AS 736 Alaska	SNA 19:31	SFO 20:56	49%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 2823 United Flight history →	SNA 14:47	SFO 16:18	50%	14%	0.4%	35%
UA 2657 United Flight history →	SNA 18:20	SFO 19:51	51%	14%	0.5%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON