Today: UA 2607 at 15:06 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–56%.

Safest bet today UA 2607 IAD 15:06 → IAH 17:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5222 DCA 19:56 → IAH 22:14 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2607 United	IAD 15:06	IAH 17:34	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1911 United	BWI 15:01	IAH 17:41	28%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	IAH 00:51	31%	6%	0.5%	95%worse than usual
UA 2095 United Flight history →	BWI 15:03	IAH 17:19	31%	5%	0.3%	65%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	32%	10%	0.3%	73%
UA 1381 United Flight history →	DCA 14:55	IAH 17:14	33%	8%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
UA 1986 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	IAH 00:45	33%	6%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:25	35%	11%	0.3%	66%
WN 1494 Southwest	DCA 14:06	HOU 16:27	37%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1645 Southwest	DCA 20:26	HOU 22:49	38%	12%	0.5%	no record
WN 4366 Southwest	DCA 18:20	HOU 20:40	38%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1011 Southwest	BWI 18:06	HOU 20:34	38%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	BWI 19:46	HOU 22:14	39%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 1040 Southwest	BWI 13:38	HOU 16:04	40%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	40%	7%	0.5%	72%worse than usual
WN 2940 Southwest	BWI 15:55	HOU 18:10	42%	7%	0.6%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:48	IAH 16:11	46%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:22	48%	14%	1.2%	57%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:35	HOU 22:55	49%	9%	0.5%	48%
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	49%	18%	1.1%	61%worse than usual
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:43	IAH 23:07	52%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:56	IAH 22:14	56%	18%	1.1%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON