Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4875 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4875 ATL 06:01 → BWI 08:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1080 ATL 16:30 → BWI 18:33 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4875 Southwest	ATL 06:01	BWI 08:04	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4364 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:00	BWI 08:50	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:24	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	BWI 10:47	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BWI 13:01	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 296 Southwest	ATL 09:21	BWI 11:24	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 10:15	BWI 12:10	13%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	15%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:27	BWI 18:23	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 2590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	BWI 00:39	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 204 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:25	BWI 16:15	16%	4%	0.6%	22%
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:36	BWI 09:47	18%	7%	0.9%	69%
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	19%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 4778 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BWI 20:10	20%	6%	0.6%	51%
WN 189 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 19:50	BWI 21:45	25%	6%	0.6%	59%
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:38	BWI 15:34	32%	14%	1.0%	58%
F9 4712 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:17	BWI 23:17	35%	17%	1.2%	46%
F9 1080 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:30	BWI 18:33	36%	15%	1.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON