Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:29 am at Atlanta)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1713 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ELP 20:50	30%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	ELP 13:20	33%	4%	0.5%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	3h 00m Denver	DEN 10:30 → ELP 12:22WN 3993	7h 57m	100%	83%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	2h 34m Houston	IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa	6h 46m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	ATL 10:00 → MDW 11:00WN 224	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 13:55 → ELP 16:00WN 2774	8h 00m	100%	79%
American Details →	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:50AA 891	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:16 → ELP 17:01AA 3504 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	100%	78%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 29m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ELP 13:11UA 2128	7h 41m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	ATL 08:55 → DAL 10:05WN 4394	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 13:05 → ELP 13:45WN 4396	6h 50m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:00 → AUS 07:20WN 4363	3h 40m Austin	AUS 11:00 → ELP 11:44WN 785	7h 44m	100%	75%
United Details →	ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa	2h 34m Houston	IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa	7h 04m	93%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ATL 18:20 → DEN 19:40WN 3002	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → ELP 22:47WN 1586	6h 27m	73%	51%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → ELP 11:52AA 1658	5h 30m	67%	48%
American Details →	ATL 17:34 → DFW 19:08AA 1376	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → ELP 20:55AA 841	5h 21m	71%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON