tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2204 at 07:25, 10%.

Safest bet that day DL 2204 ATL 07:25 → MCO 08:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2050 ATL 15:34 → MCO 17:08 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time
Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2204 Delta Flight history → ATL 07:25 MCO 08:56 10% 2% 1.0% 90%
WN 236 Southwest ATL 08:04 MCO 09:37 15% 2% 0.7% no record
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history → ATL 06:33 MCO 08:12 15% 6% 2.6% 79%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:25 MCO 09:56 16% 2% 1.0% 86%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:25 MCO 10:57 20% 3% 0.9% 85%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:58 MCO 14:28 20% 4% 0.9% 77%
DL 664 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:25 MCO 12:00 21% 3% 0.9% 85%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:59 MCO 14:34 22% 5% 1.2% 73%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:25 MCO 13:00 22% 3% 0.9% 81%
WN 215 Southwest Flight history → ATL 11:30 MCO 13:00 22% 4% 0.7% 68%
WN 223 Southwest ATL 11:55 MCO 13:32 22% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 1642 Delta Flight history → ATL 14:00 MCO 15:38 25% 8% 1.2% 51%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:25 MCO 23:58 30% 10% 1.2% 68%
F9 3976 Frontier Flight history → ATL 12:42 MCO 14:23 33% 14% 1.3% 66%
DL 1562 Delta Flight history → ATL 00:04 MCO 01:26 33% 14% 1.0% 73%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:00 MCO 19:48 33% 14% 1.2% 57%
DL 1733 Delta Flight history → ATL 21:25 MCO 23:02 35% 13% 1.2% 65%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:00 MCO 16:40 35% 13% 1.3% 63%
F9 4556 Frontier Flight history → ATL 09:53 MCO 11:27 36% 9% 1.2% 79%worse than usual
DL 1735 Delta Flight history → ATL 20:15 MCO 21:53 37% 13% 1.2% 61%
WN 4558 Southwest Flight history → ATL 18:15 MCO 20:00 39% 15% 1.2% 27%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history → ATL 16:00 MCO 17:47 39% 15% 1.3% 57%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:00 MCO 20:35 40% 13% 1.3% 62%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history → ATL 17:00 MCO 18:50 41% 14% 1.3% 59%
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history → ATL 20:30 MCO 22:15 46% 25% 2.2% 49%
F9 4026 Frontier Flight history → ATL 18:04 MCO 19:50 48% 26% 3.2% 53%
F9 2050 Frontier Flight history → ATL 15:34 MCO 17:08 58% 25% 3.6% 56%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON