Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2807 at 23:28, 19%.

Safest bet today DL 2807 ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 1013 ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2807 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:28	PNS 23:43	19%	6%	1.8%	80%
DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PNS 08:17	22%	4%	1.4%	93%worse than usual
DL 3086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:34	PNS 21:47	27%	6%	2.3%	83%
DL 3021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	PNS 20:04	28%	6%	2.1%	79%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:39	PNS 10:51	30%	6%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:48	PNS 17:03	34%	6%	2.7%	82%worse than usual
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:50	PNS 13:00	35%	7%	1.3%	87%worse than usual
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	PNS 15:13	42%	7%	1.3%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON