Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 525 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 525 AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest G4 251 AUS 15:52 → IAD 20:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 525 United Flight history →	AUS 07:30	IAD 11:48	7%	4%	0.6%	95%
UA 2344 United Flight history →	AUS 12:00	IAD 16:19	13%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 376 United Flight history →	AUS 17:00	IAD 21:19	14%	6%	0.6%	89%
G4 251 Allegiant Flight history →	AUS 15:52	IAD 20:13	28%	13%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	51m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	4h 46m	87%	78%
Allegiant Details →	AUS 08:42 → TYS 12:03G4 1424	50m Knoxville	TYS 12:53 → IAD 14:26G4 1438	4h 44m	85%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON