Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 321 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 321 AUS 05:55 → MSY 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4424 AUS 18:50 → MSY 20:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 321 Southwest	AUS 05:55	MSY 07:29	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4942 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:10	MSY 06:35	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
WN 657 Southwest	AUS 10:05	MSY 11:39	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 383 Southwest	AUS 13:10	MSY 14:45	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 13:26	MSY 15:11	26%	9%	0.9%	80%
OO 141 SkyWest	AUS 13:54	MSY 15:33	27%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 4207 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:10	MSY 16:40	28%	6%	0.7%	61%
WN 4424 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:50	MSY 20:20	30%	9%	0.7%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON