Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:24 am at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3560 at 12:30, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 3560 Southwest	AUS 12:30	RNO 14:02	31%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4078 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:00	RNO 15:25	33%	4%	0.2%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 22m	92%	80%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:50 → BUR 17:55WN 2411	3h 00m Burbank	BUR 20:55 → RNO 22:20WN 843	7h 30m	98%	79%
United Details →	AUS 14:10 → LAX 15:40UA 5841 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 18:55 → RNO 20:38UA 5411 · flown by SkyWest	8h 28m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	AUS 19:40 → PHX 20:05WN 4426	2h 26m Phoenix	PHX 22:31 → RNO 00:29 +1WN 418	6h 49m	95%	76%
Southwest Details →	AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915	3h 20m Long Beach	LGB 17:30 → RNO 18:50WN 2496	7h 35m	100%	76%
United Details →	AUS 15:35 → SFO 17:24UA 442	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 21:10 → RNO 22:29UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	AUS 17:30 → LAX 18:45WN 334	2h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 21:25 → RNO 22:55WN 1161	7h 25m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	AUS 18:35 → DEN 20:05WN 2573	50m Denver	DEN 20:55 → RNO 22:16WN 4257	5h 41m	66%	49%
Southwest Details →	AUS 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 330	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287	5h 10m	61%	47%
United Details →	AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50UA 292	55m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757	5h 57m	60%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON