tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:30 am at Austin)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet today DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 224 AUS 08:35 → SEA 10:51 · 37% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 780 Delta Flight history → AUS 06:00 SEA 08:23 11% 4% 0.5% 93%
AS 503 Alaska Flight history → AUS 16:17 SEA 18:47 23% 6% 0.6% 87%
DL 831 Delta Flight history → AUS 18:14 SEA 20:46 24% 6% 0.7% 76%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history → AUS 19:07 SEA 21:35 31% 6% 0.6% 74%
WN 532 Southwest AUS 15:40 SEA 17:52 33% 6% 0.5% no record
WN 393 Southwest Flight history → AUS 14:20 SEA 16:40 33% 6% 0.6% 52%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history → AUS 11:14 SEA 13:45 35% 6% 0.4% 94%worse than usual
AS 215 Alaska Flight history → AUS 08:30 SEA 10:58 36% 7% 0.6% 65%
AS 224 Alaska AUS 08:35 SEA 10:51 37% 6% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 59m Denver DEN 07:57 → SEA 09:43UA 1348 6h 04m 92% 72%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 274 50m Dallas DAL 07:30 → SEA 09:35WN 4840 6h 00m 96% 69%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00WN 374 50m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → SEA 10:42WN 800 6h 02m 89% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON