tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at Austin)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Southwest via Orange County, leaving 16:55, 37% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 427 Southwest AUS 19:30 SMF 21:12 33% 8% 0.1% no record
WN 406 Southwest Flight history → AUS 16:05 SMF 17:40 35% 10% 0.1% 45%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915 2h 45m Long Beach LGB 16:55 → SMF 18:30WN 2584 7h 15m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 19m 92% 76%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 16:55 → SNA 17:55WN 901 2h 45m Santa Ana SNA 20:40 → SMF 22:19WN 4023 7h 24m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 16:50 → BUR 17:55WN 2411 3h 00m Burbank BUR 20:55 → SMF 22:24WN 1034 7h 34m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 13:25 → MDW 15:55WN 359 3h 00m Chicago MDW 18:55 → SMF 21:20WN 2897 9h 55m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 19:40 → PHX 20:05WN 4426 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 22:41 → SMF 00:47 +1WN 2911 7h 07m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 18:45 → SMF 20:35DL 574 8h 47m 92% 70%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 3h 15m Denver DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132 8h 27m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 56m Salt Lake City SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585 5h 46m 62% 51%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 16:17 → SEA 18:47AS 503 1h 02m Seattle SEA 19:49 → SMF 21:42AS 681 7h 25m 62% 38%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 16:55 → SNA 17:55WN 901 50m Santa Ana SNA 18:45 → SMF 20:10WN 3872 5h 15m 55% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON