Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4418 AVL 12:56 → LGA 15:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 4342 AVL 15:58 → LGA 17:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 12:56	LGA 15:00	17%	5%	0.5%	70%
AA 4704 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 18:44	LGA 21:00	21%	7%	0.5%	95%worse than usual
AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 15:58	LGA 17:59	25%	7%	0.5%	74%
DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 12:20	LGA 14:23	24%	11%	3.5%	76%
DL 4664 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 18:56	LGA 21:02	56%	39%	12.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON