Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:55 pm at Bangor); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: AA 842 at 16:18, 31%.

Nonstops today


AA 842 American Flight history →	BGR 16:18	CLT 19:08	31%	11%	0.6%	36%
AA 1411 American Flight history →	BGR 14:57	CLT 17:13	39%	11%	0.9%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 16:07 → JFK 17:44DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m New York	JFK 20:21 → CLT 22:17DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor	6h 10m	94%	68%
American Details →	BGR 17:58 → ORD 19:58AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	56m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	6h 01m	83%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BGR 16:56 → LGA 18:37DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m New York	LGA 19:40 → CLT 21:44DL 5705 · flown by Republic	4h 48m	70%	52%
American Details →	BGR 16:10 → DCA 18:18AA 5568 · flown by PSA	49m Washington	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263	4h 39m	47%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON