Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:26 pm at Bangor); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: MQ 4067 at 17:11 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops today


MQ 4067 Envoy	BGR 17:11	DCA 19:15	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 5568 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BGR 16:10	DCA 18:18	48%	22%	1.3%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 16:07 → JFK 17:44DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m New York	JFK 21:20 → DCA 22:59DL 5743 · flown by Republic	6h 52m	97%	78%
American Details →	BGR 17:58 → ORD 19:58AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514	6h 16m	88%	70%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:56 → LGA 18:37DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	2h 43m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	6h 02m	93%	60%
American Details →	BGR 17:03 → LGA 18:49AA 4348 · flown by Republic	1h 21m New York	LGA 20:10 → DCA 21:46AA 4473 · flown by Republic	4h 43m	78%	59%
American Details →	BGR 16:18 → CLT 19:08AA 842	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	7h 35m	98%	56%
American Details →	BGR 14:57 → CLT 17:13AA 1411	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:15AA 2432	7h 18m	94%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BGR 17:03 → LGA 18:49AA 4348 · flown by Republic	1h 01m New York	LGA 19:50 → DCA 21:26AA 4719 · flown by Republic	4h 23m	74%	52%
United Details →	BGR 16:35 → ORD 18:57UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest	48m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	6h 19m	55%	43%
American Details →	BGR 14:57 → CLT 17:13AA 1411	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386	5h 03m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON