Today: DL 2470 at 19:46 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–38%.

Safest bet today DL 2470 BHM 19:46 → ATL 22:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest DL 1017 BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2470 Delta Flight history →	BHM 19:46	ATL 22:00	21%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	BHM 16:00	ATL 18:14	25%	4%	0.5%	76%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	BHM 10:42	ATL 12:46	28%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
DL 2900 Delta Flight history →	BHM 19:48	ATL 21:53	28%	6%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	BHM 18:46	ATL 21:00	30%	7%	0.6%	74%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	BHM 14:10	ATL 16:17	31%	5%	0.5%	88%worse than usual
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	BHM 17:27	ATL 19:30	33%	6%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	BHM 12:03	ATL 14:08	38%	4%	0.5%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON