Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:29 am at Birmingham)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 454 Southwest	BHM 18:45	BWI 22:05	18%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 432 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 14:40	BWI 17:40	21%	5%	0.2%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 12m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:39DL 2670	6h 39m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	6h 16m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:08 → DTW 20:10DL 4990 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	5h 10m	91%	69%
Southwest Details →	BHM 12:10 → HOU 13:55WN 4517	1h 55m Houston	HOU 15:50 → BWI 20:04WN 2105	6h 54m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	BHM 12:15 → DAL 14:00WN 4328	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 15:45 → BWI 19:38WN 1130	6h 23m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:00DL 2928	6h 57m	91%	68%
Southwest Details →	BHM 14:20 → TPA 16:50WN 3193	2h 27m Tampa	TPA 19:17 → BWI 21:46WN 4338	6h 26m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BHM 19:48 → ATL 21:53DL 2900	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	3h 51m	64%	49%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	4h 12m	62%	45%
Southwest Details →	BHM 14:20 → TPA 16:50WN 3193	52m Tampa	TPA 17:42 → BWI 20:12WN 4153	4h 52m	60%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON