Today: YX 5617 at 12:37 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–42%.

Safest bet today YX 5617 BNA 12:37 → LGA 15:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 822 BNA 16:50 → LGA 20:11 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:37	LGA 15:55	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
YX 4652 Republic	BNA 13:57	LGA 17:14	22%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 18:48	LGA 22:32	24%	6%	0.1%	67%
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:17	LGA 20:49	30%	8%	0.1%	48%
WN 4731 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:35	LGA 15:55	30%	3%	0.2%	48%
9E 5109 Endeavor	BNA 19:27	LGA 22:49	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2144 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:05	LGA 23:25	35%	5%	0.2%	39%
AA 2302 American Flight history →	BNA 14:23	LGA 17:44	35%	8%	0.2%	66%
WN 2518 Southwest	BNA 13:40	LGA 17:03	36%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4592 Southwest	BNA 19:45	LGA 23:07	37%	5%	0.2%	no record
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:42	LGA 19:51	40%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 822 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:50	LGA 20:11	42%	8%	0.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON