tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2790 Southwest BNA 12:05 PVD 15:28 15% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 4525 Southwest Flight history → BNA 13:30 PVD 16:55 18% 3% 0.5% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:40 → DCA 08:25WN 4991 2h 20m Washington DCA 10:45 → PVD 12:12WN 1525 5h 32m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:13 → ORD 07:05AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Chicago ORD 09:30 → PVD 13:01AA 3453 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 94% 89%
AmericanDetails → BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy 2h 30m Chicago ORD 15:09 → PVD 18:26AA 3771 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:31 → CLT 08:00AA 1065 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 11:12 → PVD 13:23AA 1877 6h 52m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:45 → BWI 09:35WN 462 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628 4h 20m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 451 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:45 → PVD 14:25UA 4703 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439 1h 19m Detroit DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest 4h 58m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 12:49 → ORD 14:50UA 1616 3h 00m Chicago ORD 17:50 → PVD 21:33UA 5442 · flown by SkyWest 7h 44m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:01 → ORD 18:09AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293 5h 42m 67% 55%
UnitedDetails → BNA 13:35 → IAD 16:28UA 2125 52m Dulles IAD 17:20 → PVD 18:59UA 6112 · flown by Mesa 4h 24m 68% 52%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:00 → DCA 09:04AA 5440 · flown by PSA 55m Washington DCA 09:59 → PVD 11:42AA 5619 · flown by PSA 4h 42m 3% 2%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON