Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4525
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4525 · BNA → PVD
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 11,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.