Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4525
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4525 · BNA → PVD
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.