Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4525
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4525 · BNA → PVD
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.34 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.