Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4525
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4525 · BNA → PVD
departs 11:05 AM CT · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
11am departures from BNA are often late
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.