tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:43 pm at Boston); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 16:46, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Wilmington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 16:46 → CLT 19:28AA 1573 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017 6h 47m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → BOS 18:56 → EWR 20:24UA 1693 1h 29m Newark EWR 21:53 → ILM 23:44UA 3592 · flown by Republic 4h 48m 76% 48%
DeltaDetails → BOS 17:00 → LGA 18:29DL 5721 · flown by Republic 1h 23m New York LGA 19:52 → ILM 21:38DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor 4h 38m 81% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 18:55 → CLT 21:33AA 1552 52m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017 4h 38m 54% 38%
AmericanDetails → BOS 16:46 → CLT 19:28AA 1573 52m Charlotte CLT 20:20 → ILM 21:26AA 2826 4h 40m 54% 36%
UnitedDetails → BOS 18:56 → EWR 20:24UA 1693 53m Newark EWR 21:17 → ILM 23:19UA 4511 · flown by GoJet 4h 23m 53% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON