tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:42 pm at Boston); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3961 Envoy BOS 14:59 SDF 17:40 14% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 3438 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BOS 13:59 SDF 16:40 15% 4% 0.2% 84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:49AA 1776 3h 49m Philadelphia PHL 20:38 → SDF 23:03AA 4466 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:54 → ORD 15:59AA 3711 · flown by Envoy 3h 30m Chicago ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic 8h 10m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040 2h 25m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 59m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:00 → LGA 14:27DL 5748 · flown by Republic 3h 53m New York LGA 18:20 → SDF 20:59DL 5636 · flown by Republic 7h 59m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 7h 56m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:05DL 2842 8h 10m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → BOS 14:36 → DCA 16:43AA 4342 · flown by Republic 3h 02m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 17:20 → BWI 19:10WN 1898 3h 20m Baltimore BWI 22:30 → SDF 00:27 +1WN 2886 7h 07m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:16 → PHL 14:27AA 2086 58m Philadelphia PHL 15:25 → SDF 17:36AA 5394 · flown by PSA 4h 20m 51% 37%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:47 → EWR 17:28UA 1647 53m Newark EWR 18:21 → SDF 20:46UA 3415 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 47% 34%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 13:25 → BWI 15:05WN 733 50m Baltimore BWI 15:55 → SDF 17:52WN 2630 4h 27m 24% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON