Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4647 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 BUF 12:01 → DCA 13:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time Riskiest OH 5075 BUF 15:11 → DCA 16:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 12:01	DCA 13:37	15%	5%	0.6%	43%
OH 5396 PSA	BUF 06:03	DCA 07:36	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 3668 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 06:00	DCA 07:29	18%	4%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
MQ 4074 Envoy	BUF 18:05	DCA 19:33	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 12:45	DCA 14:18	28%	18%	1.0%	58%
AA 5106 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 17:25	DCA 18:59	28%	16%	1.0%	42%
OH 5075 PSA	BUF 15:11	DCA 16:46	31%	14%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON