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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 54m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 21:30 → IAD 05:53 +1UA 357 10h 40m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 55m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 9h 48m 94% 79%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720 3h 09m Seattle SEA 16:01 → IAD 23:59AS 406 10h 49m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SEA 19:29AS 537 3h 14m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 45m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 2h 20m San Francisco SFO 10:50 → IAD 19:11UA 336 9h 09m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 05m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 9h 03m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 8h 57m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 8h 08m 72% 60%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 54m San Francisco SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 7h 32m 72% 54%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:21 → IAD 23:09AA 2254 7h 12m 66% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON