Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3246 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3246 BWI 06:50 → HOU 09:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 4254 BWI 13:00 → HOU 15:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	HOU 09:00	11%	2%	0.4%	81%
WN 1009 Southwest	BWI 07:31	HOU 09:59	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4158 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:25	HOU 10:40	15%	3%	0.4%	92%
WN 1010 Southwest	BWI 10:46	HOU 13:15	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 956 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:00	HOU 12:15	24%	3%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
WN 1011 Southwest	BWI 18:25	HOU 20:56	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4254 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:00	HOU 15:15	36%	5%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON