Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1118 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1118 BWI 06:45 → PVD 08:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2967 BWI 19:25 → PVD 20:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1118 Southwest	BWI 06:45	PVD 08:08	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4821 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	PVD 08:30	6%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 1119 Southwest	BWI 10:28	PVD 11:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4628 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:45	PVD 12:05	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 3260 Southwest	BWI 11:35	PVD 12:58	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1121 Southwest	BWI 14:24	PVD 15:47	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 823 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:15	PVD 14:35	18%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 1062 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:55	PVD 18:20	19%	5%	0.6%	77%
WN 1063 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:25	PVD 21:00	21%	6%	0.6%	65%
WN 2967 Southwest	BWI 19:25	PVD 20:48	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON