Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4635 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4635 CAE 06:00 → ORD 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4783 CAE 17:49 → ORD 19:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4635 Republic	CAE 06:00	ORD 07:32	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4293 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 06:06	ORD 07:30	6%	2%	1.0%	93%
OO 4670 SkyWest	CAE 06:16	ORD 07:38	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 4677 SkyWest	CAE 10:24	ORD 11:46	13%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 4183 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CAE 17:13	ORD 18:44	16%	3%	0.9%	74%
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CAE 17:49	ORD 19:06	21%	6%	0.8%	58%
UA 4496 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 06:25	ORD 07:52	7%	6%	1.4%	93%
UA 4189 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:03	ORD 12:25	23%	3%	3.2%	77%
UA 4400 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 17:41	ORD 19:05	24%	14%	8.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON