Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:13 pm at Columbia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5862 at 18:47, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5862 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CAE 18:47	PHL 20:50	24%	7%	1.4%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CAE 17:13 → ORD 18:44AA 4183 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177	7h 09m	97%	78%
United Details →	CAE 17:50 → ORD 19:07UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	7h 07m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59DL 3193	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	6h 36m	98%	71%
American Details →	CAE 17:52 → CLT 18:48AA 5941 · flown by Piedmont	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 30m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	CAE 17:59 → ATL 19:16DL 3032	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	7h 00m	99%	69%
American Details →	CAE 14:37 → CLT 15:37AA 5143 · flown by PSA	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 18:12 → PHL 20:12AA 2879	5h 35m	95%	65%
American Details →	CAE 20:22 → CLT 21:18AA 5959 · flown by Piedmont	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → PHL 00:10 +1AA 1827	3h 48m	83%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON