Today: DL 1664 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet today DL 1664 CHS 07:20 → ATL 08:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3179 CHS 19:59 → ATL 21:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1664 Delta Flight history →	CHS 07:20	ATL 08:36	11%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 789 Delta Flight history →	CHS 08:20	ATL 09:34	11%	2%	0.6%	98%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	CHS 17:00	ATL 18:19	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 14:27	ATL 15:43	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	CHS 11:18	ATL 12:27	18%	4%	0.5%	93%worse than usual
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	CHS 18:28	ATL 19:46	19%	6%	1.2%	84%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	CHS 13:05	ATL 14:20	22%	5%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	CHS 19:59	ATL 21:26	23%	5%	1.0%	78%
DL 5450 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 09:41	ATL 11:00	4%	2%	0.0%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON