Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:15 am at Charleston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 356 at 12:00, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 356 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 12:00	HOU 13:30	25%	6%	0.7%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHS 12:58 → DFW 14:50AA 5396 · flown by PSA	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 07m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	CHS 16:45 → STL 17:50WN 493	3h 55m St Louis	STL 21:45 → HOU 23:50WN 4617	8h 05m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 04m	95%	69%
Southwest Details →	CHS 10:35 → BWI 12:10WN 1143	50m Baltimore	BWI 13:00 → HOU 15:15WN 4254	5h 40m	92%	69%
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:55 → MDW 19:10WN 4787	2h 20m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → HOU 00:12 +1WN 4058	7h 17m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 51m	96%	67%
Southwest Details →	CHS 15:15 → DAL 16:50WN 45	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 20:00 → HOU 21:20WN 55	7h 05m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	4h 50m	85%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	52m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	4h 17m	65%	47%
American Details →	CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39AA 1656	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 23m	55%	41%
American Details →	CHS 19:53 → DFW 21:48AA 1662	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 03m	50%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON