tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 pm at Charleston); 6 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 2276 at 18:53, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2276 American CHS 18:53 PHL 20:48 28% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CHS 16:45 → STL 17:50WN 493 2h 50m St Louis STL 20:40 → PHL 23:55WN 3966 7h 10m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:28 → ATL 19:46DL 2174 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 31m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174 5h 27m 92% 67%
UnitedDetails → CHS 15:08 → ORD 16:54UA 3426 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 6h 11m 90% 67%
UnitedDetails → CHS 18:53 → ORD 20:31UA 5729 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744 6h 04m 79% 62%
DeltaDetails → CHS 15:35 → BOS 18:04DL 2785 2h 21m Boston BOS 20:25 → PHL 22:07DL 5610 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 90% 62%
AmericanDetails → CHS 18:59 → CLT 20:02AA 3117 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189 5h 23m 98% 61%
AmericanDetails → CHS 18:17 → CLT 19:40AA 5672 · flown by PSA 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 22:26 → PHL 00:10 +1AA 1827 5h 53m 90% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:43 → DTW 20:45DL 2676 50m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 4h 33m 69% 55%
AmericanDetails → CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39AA 1656 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242 7h 15m 60% 35%
JetBlueDetails → CHS 17:19 → BOS 19:42B6 2468 46m Boston BOS 20:28 → PHL 22:13B6 159 4h 54m 39% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON