Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4695 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4695 CLT 07:10 → BWI 08:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1495 CLT 19:01 → BWI 20:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4695 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 07:10	BWI 08:45	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
WN 2958 Southwest	CLT 08:28	BWI 10:02	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1216 American	CLT 07:13	BWI 08:50	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 477 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 13:10	BWI 14:40	19%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 2286 American	CLT 11:24	BWI 12:57	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 1223 Southwest	CLT 13:35	BWI 15:09	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 846 American Flight history →	CLT 11:35	BWI 13:03	21%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1635 American Flight history →	CLT 08:00	BWI 09:26	22%	5%	1.2%	87%
F9 3076 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 11:07	BWI 12:49	25%	9%	0.8%	76%
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 19:50	BWI 21:25	25%	8%	0.6%	44%
AA 2994 American	CLT 15:32	BWI 17:06	30%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	BWI 00:14	30%	7%	1.3%	74%
AA 1622 American Flight history →	CLT 16:15	BWI 17:48	31%	8%	1.3%	64%
AA 1495 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	BWI 20:36	31%	9%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON