Today: AA 1927 at 14:44 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet today AA 1927 CLT 14:44 → CHS 15:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest AA 1659 CLT 20:57 → CHS 22:03 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1927 American Flight history →	CLT 14:44	CHS 15:56	25%	8%	0.3%	60%
AA 5118 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:26	CHS 14:41	25%	8%	0.7%	71%
AA 425 American Flight history →	CLT 20:48	CHS 22:02	31%	11%	0.4%	68%
OH 5167 PSA	CLT 18:24	CHS 19:34	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CLT 16:56	CHS 18:01	35%	9%	0.3%	59%
AA 1141 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CHS 23:59	35%	9%	0.5%	67%
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:00	CHS 19:17	35%	7%	0.6%	52%
AA 1749 American	CLT 22:47	CHS 23:53	37%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 1659 American Flight history →	CLT 20:57	CHS 22:03	38%	12%	0.4%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON